January 3, 2008

• Okay, it’s time for my first Election 2008 post.

  The first caucus of the upcoming presidential election is taking place in Iowa today.  The candidates are trying to rally support for themselves in hopes of boosting their chances for getting their party’s nomination for president.  This is where the men are separated from the boys, so to speak.  So far it has just been sketchy polls and hearsay as to how popular each candidate is.  Now we will see, at least in Iowa, who the party favorites actually are.  No voting is taking place today (the first primary is in New Hampshire on January 8), but this will help to narrow the playing field some.

  This will help to answer some questions on all sides.  Keep an eye on it.

  EDIT:  As I was expecting, there was a large turnout from the Religious Right, and Mike Huckabee won the Republican caucus, with Mitt Romney coming in second.  What I didn’t expect was the margin.  Huckabee won 34% to Romney’s 25%.  What you also have to take into consideration is that Romney outspent Huckabee by a margin of about 15:1 in Iowa, trying to prove that he could get votes outside of the northeast, and failed.  This gives the Huckabee campaign a much-needed boost, both strategically and financially, as Romney’s efforts did not pay off.  Fred Thompson and John McCain finished behind them, with Ron Paul finishing fifth and grabbing a surprising 10% of the vote (more than Rudy Giuliani’s 4%, but then he wasn’t really campaigning in Iowa).  A couple of months ago, not too many people had even heard of Mike Huckabee, and now he appears to be the Republican frontrunner.  This could turn out to be a very interesting race.  CNN pundits were talking about a possible schism within the Republican party, saying that conservatives are pulling the party one way and moderates another, and this may end up dividing it.  More of that CNN spin for you.

  The Iowa Democratic caucus is different from the Republican caucus, in that while the Republicans have a mere straw poll (if you will), the Democrats have a two-round “vote.”  The caucusers stand in the area designated for the candidate they support, and a vote is tallied.  The candidates who fail to get at least 15% of the vote are knocked out, and their supporters are then allowed to back another candidate.  This puts more priority on the second choice of a candidate rather than their first choice, something which I like because it reveals the viability of a candidate.  For the Democrats, Barack Obama made an impressive showing, winning
  38% of the vote, followed by John Edwards with 30% and Hillary Clinton
  with 29%.  Hillary was hurt badly by the “second vote” procedure, as most people have already made up their minds one way or the other about her (either they like her or they hate her), so if she wasn’t their first choice she wasn’t any choice.  CNN also polled Iowa Democratic caucusers, finding that change was more of a priority to them than experience, which really helped Obama (and Edwards, to an extent).  This could be a big blow to the Clinton campaign.  We will see what plays out in New Hampshire next Tuesday.  In other news, Joe Biden and Chris Dodd have dropped out of the Democratic race.

  Very interesting developments.  Keep an eye on the New Hampshire primary next Tuesday.

  • 7:01 pm
  • 1 Comment