August 30, 2008

• We are in another presidential election season, which means it is about time for me to fire up my map generators and provide you with my in-depth poll coverage for the 2008 Election.  All of these maps will be based on poll results from the Hedgehog Report (www.davidwissing.com) so follow along if you like.  The Democratic National Convention just ended, so these poll results will probably be leaning more toward Obama in general.  After the Republican Convention, I am sure the opposite will be true.  I doubt many of these polls have been influenced by McCain’s pick of Sarah Palin as his running mate, though it probably won’t be long before they will be.

  Here is today’s map:

  

  Some general observations:

  The latest poll from Alaska shows Obama up 45-40, but this poll is dated 8/7/08, well before McCain announced Palin as his running mate.  I am sure this will change very soon.  Alaska usually goes red, anyway, so I have no doubt this will be back in McCain’s column soon.

  Obama is currently leading in Florida 45-44.  I am sure Florida will be a battleground state this election (as it is every other election), so this will most likely swing back and forth several times.  I would actually be surprised if it doesn’t.  Same with Ohio, Missouri, and Pennsylvania.  Missouri shows McCain with the lead, 48-41, but again that poll was dated 8/7/08 so it may change (Bush took the Show-Me State in ’04).  Obama is leading 48-43 in Pennsylvania at the moment (Rocky Balboa’s home state went to Kerry in ’04).  Ohio is in a dead heat right now, with Obama leading 44-43, and this poll was taken 8/24/08 (pretty recent).  Bush took Ohio in ’04, so this would be a Democratic pickup.  An interesting factoid:  both Missouri and Ohio are considered “bellwether states,” meaning the candidate that wins those states usually wins the election.  Missouri went for Adlai Stevenson in 1956, but other than that it has gone for the winner in every presidential election since 1904!  Ohio’s record is not quite as impressive as Missouri’s, but still impressive as it has gone for the winner in every election since 1960.  These states are split right now, which is quite interesting.

  The most recent poll from Colorado was done 8/26/08 at the start of the Democratic Convention.  If a new poll is done within the next few days, Obama might have a slight lead since he was just in this state.  Colorado went for Bush in ’04, so this would be a Democratic pickup.

  Also worthy of note is the fact that Obama holds a commanding lead in New Mexico right now, 53-40.  New Mexico went (barely) for Bush in ’04, so this would be a Democratic pickup.

  North Dakota is currently tied 43-43, but that state usually goes Republican (and the other polls have been trending Republican) so I am going to put it in McCain’s column.  No polls have been released for the District of Columbia, but McCain would have to win in an absolute landslide to get even 20% of the vote here, so I am giving its one vote to Obama.

  The current electoral count is 330-206 in favor of Senator Barack Obama.  He has the advantage right now, but as I said above I am sure this will be changing soon because of Palin and the Republican Convention.

  EDIT:  Okay, apparently the District of Columbia gets three votes, not just one.  The electoral votes for each state are based on the total number of Congressional representatives (from the House and the Senate), and DC has a (non-voting) representative but no senators which is how I came up with one vote.  But for electoral purposes, the minimum a state (or district, in this case) can have is three votes.  So Obama’s lead is actually 332-206.  I should have realized this, because the magic number to win the election is 270, not 269; I think I may have made this same faux pas in the 2004 election.

  • 9:10 pm
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