September 16, 2008
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High time for a new map. There have been a LOT of changes in this one, and some other races that definitely merit a comment or two.
Here is the current map:
Most of the trend favors McCain, but there are many races to keep an eye on.
COLORADO (9 votes) – The latest poll shows McCain up 48-46 here, showing that Obama’s boost from the DNC has ended. Moved from Weak Obama to Weak McCain.
IOWA (7 votes) – Iowa went for Bush by a narrow margin in 2004, but every poll that has come out for the state in this election cycle has shown Obama with a clear lead. Occasionally it has been close, but most of the time (especially recently) Obama has been up by a large margin. The latest poll shows him up 52-40. This is quite a surprise! It looks like the Dems will pick up Iowa.
MINNESOTA (10 votes) – Definitely a surprise here! The latest poll shows McCain and Obama in a dead heat at 45. Minnesota always goes blue (even in the landslide election of 1984), so this is quite a surprise. The primary reason for this is probably because the RNC was held in the Twin Cities. I still think Obama will take it, but this is definitely interesting to see. Moved from Strong Obama to Tie.
NEVADA (5 votes) – This state will probably swing back and forth a few times before November. The latest poll shows McCain with the slight edge, 49-46. Moved from Weak Obama to Weak McCain.
NEW JERSEY (15 votes) – Obama has pulled away a little here, now leading 49-41. Keep an eye on this one, though. It is still pretty close, especially also considering how close Pennsylvania is. There have also been several other polls recently showing a much closer race. I have no doubt it will go blue in November, but it might be a slim margin. Moved from Weak Obama to Strong Obama.
NEW MEXICO (5 votes) – Obama had a 13 point lead here at one point, but the latest poll shows McCain with the advantage, 49-47. Moved from Strong Obama to Weak McCain.
NEW YORK (31 votes) – Wow! The latest poll shows Obama is only up 46-41 in New York. I couldn’t believe my eyes. This state is definitely going blue in November, but this is still a shock to see! Moved from Strong Obama to Weak Obama.
NORTH CAROLINA (15 votes) – McCain’s lead has slimmed here. The latest poll shows him up 48-44. The poll before this one showed him up by 20 points, but pretty much all the rest have shown him only leading by 5% or less. Obama has yet to lead in this state, but it could potentially be in play for him. Moved from Strong McCain to Weak McCain.
NORTH DAKOTA (3 votes) – As expected, this state didn’t stay tied for long. I thought that last poll was a fluke. McCain now leads 55-41. Moved from Tie to Strong McCain.
OHIO (20 votes) – Close race here! McCain still has the slight edge in the Buckeye State, up 48-45. Keep an eye on this!
PENNSYLVANIA (21 votes) – Another close race on the eastern border of Ohio. The latest poll shows the two candidates dead even at 47-47. Moved from Weak Obama to Tie.
SOUTH DAKOTA (3 votes) – As expected, McCain has pulled away a bit in Tom Daschle’s home state. He now leads 54-37. Moved from Weak McCain to Strong McCain.
VIRGINIA (13 votes) – Another close race to watch. The latest poll shows a dead heat at 48-48. There was a pretty recent poll that even showed Obama in the lead. Moved from Weak McCain to Tie.
WASHINGTON (11 votes) – Close race here! Obama still has the slight advantage, 49-47. This state usually goes blue, but the latest polls keep showing McCain close. Washington might be in play for McCain.
WEST VIRGINIA (5 votes) – McCain’s lead has slimmed a bit here. The latest poll only shows him up 44-39. Moved from Strong McCain to Weak McCain.
We currently have 44 electoral votes tied up. This is quite exciting! Before giving those votes to either candidate, the vote stands at 266-228 in favor of McCain. If you give all of those votes to McCain, he has a commanding lead at 310-228. If you give them all to Obama, he has the slight advantage, 272-266. Probably the most accurate would be to give them to the party that won them in 2004 (Virginia to McCain, Minnesota and Pennsylvania to Obama), and that would give McCain the lead 279-259.
