I apologize for not getting a map up sooner!  I just realized it has been about a month since my last map.  Here it is:

Pretty much all of these changes favor the junior senator from Illinois.  The senior senator from Arizona appears to be losing ground, if you hadn’t caught that already from the news.

ARIZONA (10 votes) – Trouble in paradise?  There are two recent polls from John McCain’s home state shows him with a slim lead, one showing 5 percent and one showing 2 percent.  I doubt he’ll lose it, but this could be an indicator of other problems.  Moving from Strong McCain to Weak McCain.

COLORADO (9 votes) – Obama consistently leading, three of the last four polls show him up by 8 points or more.  It looks like Bronco Country may be going blue this election.  Moving from Weak Obama to Strong Obama.

FLORIDA (27 votes) – Obama has been leading consistently here recently, some polls showing by as many as 7 points.  I am moving it from Tied to Weak Obama.

GEORGIA (15 votes) – McCain’s lead is slipping here.  One recent poll from Insider Advantage even showed Obama with a 1 point lead.  I think McCain is going to take it still, but Obama’s ads seem to be having an effect.  Moving from Strong McCain to Weak McCain.

INDIANA (11 votes) – McCain’s lead has definitely slimmed in the Hoosier state; some polls have even showed Obama leading.  The most recent poll gives McCain a six-point edge, so I am leaving it as Weak McCain for now.

IOWA (7 votes) – Obama has a solid lead here.  Several recent polls have shown him with double-digit leads even.  I am moving it from Weak Obama to Strong Obama.

LOUISIANA (9 votes) – One of the few changes in McCain’s favor.  The most recent poll now shows him with a 15-point advantage, leading 55-40.  Moving from Weak McCain to Strong McCain.

MAINE (4 votes) – The latest poll shows Obama now ahead 53-38.  It was only a few recent polls that showed it to be closer.  This one appears to be pretty solid blue.  Moving from Weak Obama to Strong Obama.

MICHIGAN (17 votes) – As expected, Obama is consistently leading now that McCain has pulled his ads, now leading 53-43.  This one could get much worse for McCain.

MINNESOTA (10 votes) – Obama is pulling ahead here, as well he should in this reliably blue state.  It was the only state (other than the District of Columbia) that Reagan lost in the landslide of 1984, because it was Walter Mondale’s home state.  The latest poll shows Obama with a 12-point lead.  Moved from Weak Obama to Strong Obama.

MISSOURI (11 votes) – Missouri continues to be a major battleground.  Some polls have been showing Obama with a slim lead, some have been showing McCain with a slim lead, and some have showed it tied.  This one is really too close to call.  The latest poll shows McCain with a one-point lead, so I will leave it as Weak McCain for now.

NEVADA (5 votes) – Obama has been consistently leading for awhile here now, a couple polls showing double-digit leads.  The latest poll gives him a 50-45 advantage.  Moving from Tied to Weak Obama.

NEW HAMPSHIRE (4 votes) – Oh my God!  The latest poll shows Obama now leading here 58-34!  Many pundits have been saying that John McCain might take this one, but the last four polls have all showed Obama with a double-digit lead.  I think I can safely move it from Weak Obama to Strong Obama.

NEW MEXICO (5 votes) – Two recent polls from Scott Rasmussen have showed Obama with a double-digit lead.  Moving from Weak Obama to Strong Obama.

NORTH CAROLINA (15 votes) – Like Missouri, this one keeps waffling back and forth.  McCain is leading by one point in the latest poll, so I am leaving it as Weak McCain for now.

NORTH DAKOTA (3 votes) – Minnesota State University poll from early October gives Obama 45-43 advantage, mid-October poll from Research 2000 shows tie at 45-45.  Was tied once before in July.  Hesitant to move it out of McCain’s column, but am going to move it from Strong McCain to Weak McCain.

OHIO (20 votes) – Obama has been leading here pretty consistently recently.  The latest poll shows him leading 49-45, and I am becoming more and more convinced that he might take the Buckeye State.  Moving from Weak McCain to Weak Obama.

PENNSYLVANIA (21 votes) – The latest poll only showed Obama up 7 points, but many other polls have been showing him by nine points or more.  I am leaving it as Strong Obama for now.

SOUTH CAROLINA (8 votes) – I didn’t expect Confederate-happy South Carolina to stay “Weak” McCain for too much longer.  I mean, the first battle of the Civil War took place here.  Wasn’t that also during Strom Thurmond’s first term in office?  *crickets chirping*  Hmm…tough crowd.  Anyway, moving from Weak McCain to Strong McCain.

VIRGINIA (13 votes) – All recent polls have showed Obama with the lead, some saying as much as 11 percent.  Moving from Tied to Weak Obama.

WASHINGTON (11 votes) – Obama’s lead has expanded to 56-39 and the last four polls have shown double-digit leads.  Not all that surprising because the West Coast usually goes blue.  I’m surprised McCain remained close for as long as he did.  Moving from Weak Obama to Strong Obama.

WISCONSIN (10 votes) – Obama has pretty consistently been getting double-digit leads here, the latest poll showing him up 9 points.  This state went to Kerry by less than 2,000 votes in 2004, but it looks like Obama will have a much easier time.  Perhaps it is because he is from neighboring Illinois, Chicago at that.  Moving from Weak Obama to Strong Obama.

Obama has a commanding lead at this point in the projected electoral vote, leading 338-200.  No matter how you look at it, McCain has some serious ground to make up.  He does seem to be closing a bit in the popular vote, but he needs to start making a dent in the electoral column.  As everyone remembers from the Fiasco of 2000, popular vote does NOT elect the president.

I’ll try to get out one last map before the election, as well as my prediction for how next Tuesday will go.  Remember, last election I called the winner in every state but one:  Wisconsin, that I gave to Bush but Kerry won it by a VERY slim margin.  Let’s see if I can keep up my streak this election cycle! 

Hold onto your hats everyone!  The Obama campaign is about to go up in roaring flames!  The same person that brought you “Unfit for Command” that sabotaged the Kerry campaign in 2004 has released a book, “The Obama Nation,” playing up Obama’s ties with Marxists, terrorists, and racist radicals.  This book is now in stores, just in time for people to read it right before the election.  Granted, this is a private opinion, but it’s a nice “October surprise,” don’t you think?

I wonder what the Obama campaign will do to counter this.  Probably keep doing what they’re doing, putting up their own misleading ads (just as misleading as some of the McCain campaign’s), and keep playing up how John McCain says he isn’t President Bush but by his own words “voted with the President more than 90% of the time.”  I know one thing their opponent has done that they won’t do:  put out ads saying John McCain has ties with terrorists.  Some people find that offensive, you know?  Do we not learn from our history?  It seems the current leaders of the Republican party have not.  Back in the 1700s it was the Salem Witch Trials and scarlet “A”s, back in the 1950s it was HUAC and Joseph McCarthy labeling people as “Communist,” and now it’s George W. Bush and John McCain – directly and/or indirectly – labeling people as “terrorist.”

Seriously people…stop listening to the campaign ads because they are obviously biased.  Their whole purpose is to try to sway your vote one way or another, telling you whatever they need to tell you (whether true or not) to get you to do it.  This close to the election especially they are going to stoop to downright slander to get you over to their side (especially the side that is currently LOSING).  Stop voting Democrat just to vote Democrat or voting Republican just to vote Republican.  Stop drinking the kool-aid from BOTH parties and look at the issues.  Who do you agree with on economics?  Don’t listen to the commercials; read the Obama economic plan and the McCain economic plan and decide for yourself.  Who do you agree with on domestic and foreign policy?  Who do you agree with on abortion, gay rights, and separation of church and state?  Who do you think will not hesitate to send our forces into battle when necessary, but will ONLY do it when necessary?  Sorry, I tried not to make that one a loaded question but I may have failed.  Most importantly, based on your OWN research who do you think will properly lead this country?

P.S.  I plan to have a new map up pretty soon.  Some big changes to report!

I haven’t said anything really about this, but I figure it is about time I made it known.  For quite awhile I have known who I was going to vote for in this election, but I haven’t said anything about it because I know it isn’t very popular in my circle.  I am planning on voting for Barack Obama for a number of reasons, but mostly because I agree with him on most of the issues.

Economics:  I have always been more of a supply-side (Reagan) economist.  I have never really been that favorable of Obama’s economic plan, but with recent economic policies put out by the Republicans I haven’t really been that enamored by them, either.  Plus, the economy is clearly having problems, and I think there may be some credence to the Keynesian argument that the supply-side policies put forth by Bush and the former Republican Congress may be partially to blame.  I don’t know for sure; all I know is that I see many problems and I don’t know who to blame or who is right.  I can argue supply-side economics until I am blue in the face, but at the end of the day I really don’t know anymore if it truly works or not.  Do the benefits really trickle down from the rich to the poor?  I have trouble seeing it sometimes.  I still have to give the slight edge to McCain on this issue just because I have always been a supply-sider, but I am not as sure about it as I used to be.

Iraq:  I was never fully
convinced that Bush’s invasion of Iraq was anything more than an
attempt to clean up the mess created by his father after the Persian
Gulf War.  I thought the connection between Saddam and Al Qaeda was
sketchy at best, and we have yet to find any WMDs.  At the time I
argued for the war like a good little Christian Republican, being an
adamant Bush apologist despite whatever evidence was presented to the
contrary.  But from what I can see Iraq never attacked us, and so
essentially we bombed and invaded a nation just because we thought they
didn’t like us.  Polls I have seen from the Iraqi people show they do
not approve of our occupation, and McCain says he has no problems with
us being there for another hundred years.  Not only do I disagree with
our presence there on moral reasons, but we have also wasted so much
money and resources trying to force a western-style democracy on them,
and I think a lot of the economic problems we are having stem from this
Middle Eastern quagmire.  I have encountered some people who have said that the United States should “have the balls” to declare war more often, but in my mind it takes more balls NOT to declare war than to declare it.  I support our troops, and I tend to label
myself as patriotic, but just because I do doesn’t mean I should
support a war that I find morally wrong.  Now I don’t think it is
reasonable or feasible for us to leave tomorrow, but as soon as we can
find a good time to leave we should do just that.  Obama is right.

Abortion:  A very tough issue, but one that I have thought about quite a bit.  I have become very pro-choice in the last few years.  It started out as reserving abortion for cases of rape or incest, or when the life of the mother was in jeopardy.  But anymore, I have to say there is really no way I can possibly foresee every possible circumstance where abortion might be a consideration.  For one, I am a man and will never be pregnant, so I don’t see how I have the right to argue for or against a choice that I will never have to make.  For two, I hear a lot of people on the pro-life side that say abortion is murder, but a lot of these same people have no problems with invading another country (who had not attacked us) and killing innocent people along the way.  Isn’t that not also murder?  I have encountered several people in the last few years (since my eyes were opened) who have had to make that difficult decision.  Their stories have brought me to tears, and I don’t see how I can have the audacity to even think about telling them what to do.

Gay Marriage:  I no longer read, believe, or adhere to the Bible, and so therefore I see no reason why homosexuals should not be allowed to marry if they so choose.  Yes, I am straight, but that makes just about as much difference as the color of my skin or the color of my hair.  They are not hurting me, so why is it my business to interfere with what they want to do?  Most of the homosexuals I have met are actually very nice (and fun) people, and now that I no longer have a bigoted view of them I see them as people perhaps a bit different from me, but people all the same.  I don’t know if homosexuality is genetic or not, but it doesn’t matter.  If they have no choice, then by no means should we stop them from being who they are.  If it is purely a choice, who am I to keep them from doing what they want to do if it doesn’t affect me at all?  They should not be denied any of the freedoms you and I have just because of what they do in bed.

Separation of Church and State:  Definitely my biggest issue.  The Religious Right has way too much power in this country, and I am tired of it.  Not only that, but Christianity in general is so pervasive in everything.  I thought I was persecuted and felt uncomfortable for who I was while I was a Christian, but it has been ten times as bad since I have left Christianity.  Yes, I do live pretty close to the Bible Belt (if not in it), but even when I watch events taking place in other (more liberal) areas of the country I still see Christian influence.  From everything I have heard from McCain and Palin, a lot of their policies are based on this Christian morality that I no longer agree with.  If they get in, I do not feel comfortable that my views as an agnostic will be respected; I just feel my views will be “put up with” as one puts up with a headache, or that religious philosophies will be pushed forward regardless of my opinions and rights.  Judges will be put in office who will further the religious agenda and may even reverse decisions that will take rights and freedoms away from the non-religious.  Obama made a great speech back when he was running for the Senate about respecting everyone’s religious views, letting them be as religious or non-religious as they so choose without any pressure from the government either way.  I feel much safer with Obama on this, my biggest issue.

So now it is out there.  Of my five top issues I align myself with Obama on four of them, and the fifth (economics) I only gave a slight edge to McCain.  My choice is clear.  On November 4 I will cast my vote for Barack Obama and Joseph Biden.

I will still put poll results and maps on this blog, and I will still be as fair and impartial as I can be.  But I just wanted to make my loyalties clear.

A new map to start the new month.  The RNC is well over, and the first presidential debate just happened on Friday.  I doubt the debate has influenced these polls that much, but I am sure there is a slight effect.

Here is the map:

COLORADO (9 votes) -  Obama has pulled slightly ahead in Bronco Country.  The latest poll shows him leading 49-48.  Moved from Weak McCain to Weak Obama.

FLORIDA (27 votes) -  Florida is definitely a battleground state, as expected.  The candidates are now dead even at 47-47.  Moved from Weak McCain to Tied.

IOWA (7 votes) -  Obama’s lead has slimmed a bit here to 51-44.  I still think he is going to take the state because I have yet to see a poll where John McCain is leading.  Moved from Strong Obama to Weak Obama.

LOUISIANA (9 votes) -  McCain’s lead has gone down a bit here to 50-43.  Louisiana usually goes red, so I am sure he will still take it.  Moved from Strong McCain to Weak McCain.

MAINE (4 votes) -  Obama is only leading here 49-44.  Also remember that Maine splits it’s votes between its two districts.  So far Obama is leading in both, but a close race could mean a 3-1 split here.  Moved from Strong Obama to Weak Obama.

MICHIGAN (17 votes) -  Wow, Obama has really pulled ahead here!  The latest poll shows him leading McCain 51-38.  Moved from Weak Obama to Strong Obama.

MINNESOTA (10 votes) -  As expected, Obama is back in the lead in Minnesota, 47-45.  The GOP held their convention here trying to sway it, but Minnesota is usually a blue state.  Moved from Tied to Weak Obama.

MONTANA (3 votes) -  McCain is only leading by a small margin here now, 49-47.  I am pretty sure he will take Montana, but the state has gone blue before (1992).  Moved from Strong McCain to Weak McCain.

NEVADA (5 votes) -  McCain had pulled ahead here, but the latest poll shows it tied at 46-46.  Moved from Weak McCain to Tied.

NEW JERSEY (15 votes) -  It looks like Obama is starting to pull away a bit in New Jersey, now leading 52-42.  Some recent polls showed it closer, but I am pretty sure it is going to go blue.

NEW MEXICO (5 votes) -  Obama now has a good lead in New Mexico, 51-44.  McCain was leading in the last poll, but Obama has been leading most of the polls.  Moved from Weak McCain to Weak Obama.

NEW YORK (31 votes) -  As expected, New York is not going to be in play it appears.  The last poll appears to have been a fluke.  Obama has now pulled ahead 57-38.  Moved from Weak Obama to Strong Obama.

NORTH CAROLINA (14 votes) -  North Carolina may be in play, folks.  We’ll see.  The latest poll from Rasmussen shows Obama with a slight lead, 49-47.  There is also a more recent poll from American Research Group showing McCain with the edge, 49-46.  From what I remember from 2004, both of those organizations can be a bit liberally biased.  I am leaving North Carolina in McCain’s column, but keep an eye on it.

PENNSYLVANIA (21 votes) -  Obama has really pulled ahead here, now leading 50-42 according to a Rasmussen poll.  Moved from Tied to Strong Obama.

VIRGINIA (13 votes) -  Virginia is definitely in play.  In the latest Rasmussen poll, Obama has a slight lead, 50-47, but a poll from American Research Group shows McCain with the edge, 49-46.  I am leaving it in the Tied column for now.

WEST VIRGINIA (5 votes) -  McCain has started to pull away here, now leading 50-42.  Moved from Weak McCain to Strong McCain.

The electoral vote currently stands at 273-220 in favor of Obama.  There are currently 45 votes tied up.  If we give all the votes to Obama, he has a commanding lead at 318-220.  If we give all of them to McCain (Bush won Nevada, Virginia, and Florida in 2004), Obama still has a slight lead, 273-265.  Interesting note here, if you pull a 4-vote state out of Obama’s column (New Hampshire is a very real possibility) and give it to McCain the vote is tied at 269-269.  There has never been an electoral tie, and we have an interesting scenario in this election if it were to happen.  The House would pick the president, and since it is controlled by the Democrats that means Obama would most likely be elected president.  The Senate, currently 51-49 Democrat, would select the vice president, and if Joe Lieberman votes with the Republicans, there would be a 50-50 tie.  Then Dick Cheney would break the tie, most likely picking Sarah Palin as his successor.  So if there were to be a tie, we are possibly looking at an Obama/Palin White House.  Weird.

EDIT:  McCain has pulled his ads and has stopped campaigning in Michigan.  There has been some diversity in the margin, but pretty much all the recent polls have showed Obama leading.  The fact that McCain has pulled his ads (and canceled events) indicates he has little hope at winning the state.  Barring any major incidents, it looks like this one will be going blue.