October 3, 2008
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A new map to start the new month. The RNC is well over, and the first presidential debate just happened on Friday. I doubt the debate has influenced these polls that much, but I am sure there is a slight effect.
Here is the map:
COLORADO (9 votes) - Obama has pulled slightly ahead in Bronco Country. The latest poll shows him leading 49-48. Moved from Weak McCain to Weak Obama.
FLORIDA (27 votes) - Florida is definitely a battleground state, as expected. The candidates are now dead even at 47-47. Moved from Weak McCain to Tied.
IOWA (7 votes) - Obama’s lead has slimmed a bit here to 51-44. I still think he is going to take the state because I have yet to see a poll where John McCain is leading. Moved from Strong Obama to Weak Obama.
LOUISIANA (9 votes) - McCain’s lead has gone down a bit here to 50-43. Louisiana usually goes red, so I am sure he will still take it. Moved from Strong McCain to Weak McCain.
MAINE (4 votes) - Obama is only leading here 49-44. Also remember that Maine splits it’s votes between its two districts. So far Obama is leading in both, but a close race could mean a 3-1 split here. Moved from Strong Obama to Weak Obama.
MICHIGAN (17 votes) - Wow, Obama has really pulled ahead here! The latest poll shows him leading McCain 51-38. Moved from Weak Obama to Strong Obama.
MINNESOTA (10 votes) - As expected, Obama is back in the lead in Minnesota, 47-45. The GOP held their convention here trying to sway it, but Minnesota is usually a blue state. Moved from Tied to Weak Obama.
MONTANA (3 votes) - McCain is only leading by a small margin here now, 49-47. I am pretty sure he will take Montana, but the state has gone blue before (1992). Moved from Strong McCain to Weak McCain.
NEVADA (5 votes) - McCain had pulled ahead here, but the latest poll shows it tied at 46-46. Moved from Weak McCain to Tied.
NEW JERSEY (15 votes) - It looks like Obama is starting to pull away a bit in New Jersey, now leading 52-42. Some recent polls showed it closer, but I am pretty sure it is going to go blue.
NEW MEXICO (5 votes) - Obama now has a good lead in New Mexico, 51-44. McCain was leading in the last poll, but Obama has been leading most of the polls. Moved from Weak McCain to Weak Obama.
NEW YORK (31 votes) - As expected, New York is not going to be in play it appears. The last poll appears to have been a fluke. Obama has now pulled ahead 57-38. Moved from Weak Obama to Strong Obama.
NORTH CAROLINA (14 votes) - North Carolina may be in play, folks. We’ll see. The latest poll from Rasmussen shows Obama with a slight lead, 49-47. There is also a more recent poll from American Research Group showing McCain with the edge, 49-46. From what I remember from 2004, both of those organizations can be a bit liberally biased. I am leaving North Carolina in McCain’s column, but keep an eye on it.
PENNSYLVANIA (21 votes) - Obama has really pulled ahead here, now leading 50-42 according to a Rasmussen poll. Moved from Tied to Strong Obama.
VIRGINIA (13 votes) - Virginia is definitely in play. In the latest Rasmussen poll, Obama has a slight lead, 50-47, but a poll from American Research Group shows McCain with the edge, 49-46. I am leaving it in the Tied column for now.
WEST VIRGINIA (5 votes) - McCain has started to pull away here, now leading 50-42. Moved from Weak McCain to Strong McCain.
The electoral vote currently stands at 273-220 in favor of Obama. There are currently 45 votes tied up. If we give all the votes to Obama, he has a commanding lead at 318-220. If we give all of them to McCain (Bush won Nevada, Virginia, and Florida in 2004), Obama still has a slight lead, 273-265. Interesting note here, if you pull a 4-vote state out of Obama’s column (New Hampshire is a very real possibility) and give it to McCain the vote is tied at 269-269. There has never been an electoral tie, and we have an interesting scenario in this election if it were to happen. The House would pick the president, and since it is controlled by the Democrats that means Obama would most likely be elected president. The Senate, currently 51-49 Democrat, would select the vice president, and if Joe Lieberman votes with the Republicans, there would be a 50-50 tie. Then Dick Cheney would break the tie, most likely picking Sarah Palin as his successor. So if there were to be a tie, we are possibly looking at an Obama/Palin White House. Weird.
EDIT: McCain has pulled his ads and has stopped campaigning in Michigan. There has been some diversity in the margin, but pretty much all the recent polls have showed Obama leading. The fact that McCain has pulled his ads (and canceled events) indicates he has little hope at winning the state. Barring any major incidents, it looks like this one will be going blue.
Comments (3)
Yeah, I presented that Obama/Palin possibility to my Am. Govt. class the other day. This from the Washington Times:
“Absurd? Possibly, and there is not complete agreement among constitutional experts on whether a newly elected Congress or the currently sitting House and Senate would make the decision.
So try this scenario: The newly elected House, seated in January, is unable to muster a majority to choose a president after a 269-269 tie, but the Senate, which is expected to be controlled by Democrats, picks Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. from the Democratic ticket. If the House is still deadlocked at noon on Inauguration Day, Jan. 20, Mr. Biden becomes acting president.
Or try this one on for size: Neither the House nor the Senate fulfills its constitutional duty to select the president and the vice president by Jan. 20, so House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, California Democrat, becomes acting president until the whole mess is sorted out.”
I’m sure you know this, but your readers might not. The reason the House might have trouble picking a president is that Amend XII says each state gets one vote and a majority of states is needed to select a president. So if a state delegation is split, their votes wouldn’t count. We’d need 26 state delegations to agree on a president.
Yeah, this bailout plan has become a bloated corpse–from 3 pages to 450 pages and counting of pork. I’m actually in favor of some sort of bailout, but this plan is expensive and doesn’t hold anyone accountable. I like the plan put forward by Dave Ramsey. It may be a bit idealistic, but it’s simple and addresses the root of the problem. It’s unfortunate that the first truly bipartisan bill (endorsed by both McCain and Obama) is a bloated spending bill.
In response to your comment, I hadn’t thought about ME and NE splitting their electoral votes. Of course, that’s highly unlikely in NE, but ME has a good chance of sending one delegate to McCain. I’d probably cheer for the 269-269 tie for sheer entertainment value if I didn’t think this election was so important. I imagine Obama would be a decent executive, but I can’t imagine what sort of revisionist justices he would appoint (and there will almost certainly be two or three vacancies). Who wants a country led by a bunch of John Paul Stevens clones?