Obama has 238 votes pretty much sewn up, in my opinion, while McCain has 163. McCain is definitely the one that needs to be taking more swing states (underlined) Tuesday. Obama only needs to take 32 more votes, which could easily be done by taking two states. David Wissing is optimistic for a McCain win, but he is a Republican so of course he is going to think that way. I think McCain will take quite a few swing states, but like I said Obama only needs to take 32 votes in swing states to win, which will probably be very easy.
Here is my prediction map, along with reasoning and margin for each state. There are quite a few key races to watch, which I have marked with an asterisk (*).
ALABAMA (9 votes) – South of the Mason-Dixon line, and has gone Republican for a long time. McCain has this one sewn up. McCain by 15-20%.
ALASKA (3 votes) – Sarah Palin’s home state, another easy win for McCain. McCain by >20%.
* ARIZONA (10 votes) – McCain has had some trouble in his own home state, even campaigning here a bit down to the wire. I doubt he’ll lose it, but it might be closer than he’d like. Keep an eye on it. If this one starts going south, it could signify a long night for McCain. Unfortunately, its polls will be closing later in the night so we won’t see a lot until after we have already seen results out east. McCain by 5-10%.
ARKANSAS (6 votes) – I don’t think McCain has anything to worry about here, though the margin might be a bit closer than we expect. Maybe Bill Clinton’s campaigning has had an effect? McCain by 5-10%.
CALIFORNIA (55 votes) – No way Obama is going to lose here. The only Republican California has gone for since I’ve been alive was Ronald Reagan in 1984, and he won all but Minnesota and DC. There are enough Republicans here that I doubt it will be a complete landslide, but Obama has this one sewn up. Obama by 15-20%.
* COLORADO (9 votes) – Definitely one to watch here. Colorado went for Bush in 2004, but it has been trending for Obama this cycle. The DNC was in Denver, so that probably has a lot to do with it. McCain will make a respectable showing, I’m sure, but I have to give this one to Obama. Obama by 1-5%.
DELAWARE (3 votes) – Easy victory for Obama here in the liberal northeast. McCain won’t even come close. Obama by >20%.
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA (3 votes) – Ha. The district is 100% urban, which means it will undoubtedly go blue. No Republican candidate – not even Reagan – has been able to take this. Obama will win this by a ridiculous margin. The only question is if McCain will get double-digits. Obama by >20%.
* FLORIDA (27 votes) – This is the largest of the battleground states. Obama has been leading here pretty consistently recently, though the margin has been very close. It could go either way. I decided to give this one to McCain, just because it went for Bush in the last two elections. But if Obama does take it, there are 27 of the 32 votes he needs. McCain by <1%.
GEORGIA (15 votes) – South of the Mason-Dixon line, though it does have some urban areas that make it a bit less reliable as a blue state. This was Jimmy Carter’s home state, but this is also Zell Miller’s home state. McCain will still win this pretty comfortably, but it will not be a huge margin. McCain by 5-10%.
HAWAII (4 votes) – No way McCain will come anywhere close in this liberal stronghold. Obama by >20%.
IDAHO (4 votes) – The people of Idaho love their guns, and there is no way this state will go to a liberal. It is also close to Utah, so once again Obama has pretty much no chance. McCain by >20%.
ILLINOIS (21 votes) – Barack Obama’s home state. He has routinely been pulling >60% of the vote in polls here. No question he’ll take it. Obama by >20%.
* INDIANA (11 votes) – Another potentially close one to watch. Indiana usually goes red, but Obama has been getting good numbers here recently, probably because of what has been happening in Michigan. I have to give it to McCain, but I think it could be very close. McCain by 1-5%.
IOWA (7 votes) – This state went for Bush in 2004, but Obama has been leading here by quite a bit in pretty much all the polls that have been done. I am sure he will take it. Obama by 10-15%.
KANSAS (6 votes) – There is a line of midwestern states stretching from North Dakota down to Texas that are usually very reliable Republican states. Kansas is no exception. McCain by 15-20%.
KENTUCKY (8 votes) – Usually a very reliable red state, and there is no doubt in my mind it will be again. McCain by 15-20%.
LOUSIANA (9 votes) – Liberal, Katrina-stricken New Orleans is in this state, but the state as a whole usually goes Republican. McCain has been leading in all the polls here. McCain by 10-15%.
MAINE (4 votes) – Maine splits its electoral votes by who wins each congressional district, but polls indicate this will not be an issue this election. Obama will take this pretty easily. Obama by 10-15%.
MARYLAND (10 votes) – Another state in the liberal northeast. Obama will take this one with ease. Obama by 15-20%.
MASSACHUSETTS (12 votes) – John Kerry and Ted Kennedy’s home state. Need I say more? Obama by 15-20%.
MICHIGAN (17 votes) – At the start of campaigning, this one looked to be in play. But with all the economic problems in the automobile industry, union workers are flocking to Obama. McCain pulled his ads here, so he is most assuredly not counting on a win. Obama by 15-20%.
MINNESOTA (10 votes) – The GOP Convention was in the Twin Cities, hoping to have some pull from Minnesota and its blue neighbors. But the proximity to Illinois is just too much liberal pull, besides the fact that Minnesota pretty much always goes blue (including for Walter Mondale in 1984). I think conservatives may be making some progress here, but it is still Democrat. Obama by 10-15%.
MISSISSIPPI (6 votes) – South of the Mason-Dixon line. Though a recent poll showed it a bit closer, I think McCain will take it pretty comfortably. McCain by 10-15%.
* MISSOURI (11 votes) – Wow, this one has been very close! If the bellweatherness of Missouri is any indicator, this might be a very close election (at least in the popular vote). I am giving the slight edge to McCain because he has led more in the polls, but it will most likely be a very slim margin. McCain by <1%.
MONTANA (3 votes) – For some reason there is always a bit of a Democratic pull in Montana which makes it a little closer than its solid Republican neighbors (like Idaho and Wyoming). It went for Bill Clinton in 1996, but went for Bush in 2000 and 2004. It will go red I’m sure, but it will be somewhat close. McCain by 5-10%.
NEBRASKA (5 votes) – Nebraska also splits its votes like Maine, but again it will not be an issue. This is in that line of midwestern states that always go Republican. McCain by 15-20%.
* NEVADA (5 votes) – Harry Reid’s home state went to Bush in 2004, but Obama has been consistently leading in all the polls as of late. I am giving him the slight edge in this one, but it will be close. Keep an eye on this one; McCain could take it. Obama by 1-5%.
NEW HAMPSHIRE (4 votes) – The McCain campaign was consistently talking about pulling New Hampshire, since McCain won the New Hampshire primary. However, Obama has been having some outrageous numbers here recently, so it doesn’t look like that will be the case. Obama by 10-15%.
NEW JERSEY (15 votes) – No way McCain will take this state that sits right between New York City and Philadelphia. Jersey is going to Obama, though recent polls compel me to slim the margin a bit. Obama by 5-10%.
* NEW MEXICO (5 votes) – This state barely went for Bush in 2004, but it has been trending Democrat this election cycle. I think Obama is probably going to take it, but keep an eye on it because it could be close. Obama by 5-10%.
NEW YORK (31 votes) – The only way McCain will be close here is if all the Hillary supporters decide to back him. New York always goes blue. Obama by >20%.
* NORTH CAROLINA (15 votes) – Obama has been making a VERY strong showing in this state south of the Mason-Dixon line, and it is definitely going to be a fight. I am giving the edge to McCain just because it is in the South, but it will probably be close. McCain by 1-5%.
NORTH DAKOTA (3 votes) – If there had been any more recent polls out of this state, I am sure McCain would have been leading by quite a bit. These last two have to be flukes, but I am going to weigh them into my margin anyway to be safe. McCain by 10-15%.
* OHIO (20 votes) – This is a key state. This is the third largest of the battleground states after Florida and Pennsylvania, so McCain really needs to take this one. If Obama takes it, he only needs 12 more swing-votes to win. Recent polls have been showing a tie or McCain with the slight lead, but Obama has been leading here for quite awhile so I think I have to give it to him. It will undoubtedly be very close though. Obama by <1%.
OKLAHOMA (7 votes) – That line of midwestern states, and this one borders Texas. Enough said. McCain by >20%.
OREGON (7 votes) – The three states on the West Coast pretty much always go blue, and Obama’s numbers show that he will continue that trend here. Obama by 10-15%.
* PENNSYLVANIA (21 votes) – This is the second biggest battleground state, so definitely watch it. Obama has been consistently leading here for quite awhile, and Pennsylvania usually goes blue. But keep in mind that if he does take this one, that is only 11 more swing votes for the win. David Wissing is hopeful for a Pennsylvania win, but I don’t see it happening. Obama by 5-10%.
RHODE ISLAND (4 votes) – Peter Griffin’s home state. 
This state is in the liberal northeast and is very urban. It will undoutedly go to Obama. Obama by 15-20%.
SOUTH CAROLINA (8 votes) – Assuming Strom Thurmond’s ghost isn’t liberal, this Confederate-happy state will go for McCain easily. McCain by 15-20%.
SOUTH DAKOTA (3 votes) – That line of midwestern states. This one is Tom Daschle’s home state so it might not be a huge margin, but it will still be a comfortable margin for McCain. McCain by 10-15%.
TENNESSEE (11 votes) – A very reliable Republican state. McCain will win it easily. Country music lovers usually vote Republican, don’t they? McCain by 15-20%.
TEXAS (34 votes) – President Bush’s home state. An abundance of churches and prisons. Gun-lovers. It’s Texas, so who do you think it’s going for? There’s enough Hispanics here to trim the margin down, but McCain has nothing to worry about. McCain by 10-15%.
UTAH (5 votes) – The Mormon Church will tell all its people to vote for John McCain. That’s the way it always happens. Obama won’t come anywhere close. McCain by >20%.
VERMONT (3 votes) – Easy win for Obama in the liberal northeast. Not sure if he will break 20% based on the polls, but he will win very easily. Obama by 15-20%.
* VIRGINIA (13 votes) – WATCH THIS ONE! Virginia usually goes Republican, but it has been trending for Obama recently. Will McCain come back and pull this Bush state back from Obama, or will the Democrat pick it up? My bet is on the latter. Obama by 1-5%.
WASHINGTON (11 votes) – Another West Coast state that always goes blue. It will do so again this year. McCain made it close for awhile, but Obama is pulling away. Obama by 10-15%.
WEST VIRGINIA (5 votes) – Another pretty reliable red state. McCain has been leading here consistently, and I have no doubt he will take it. McCain by 5-10%.
WISCONSIN (10 votes) – This state went to John Kerry by less than 2,000 votes in 2004, but polls indicate Obama is doing quite well in this state that is the northern neighbor of Illinois. He wins it easily. Obama by 10-15%.
WYOMING (3 votes) – There will be many close races with a margin of victory greater than the entire voting population of Wyoming. No matter…its three votes will unquestioningly go to John McCain. McCain by >20%.
Final tally: Obama wins 311-227. And for those of you keeping track, yes I did split the two bellweather states, Ohio and Missouri. It was a very tough call, but that is the decision I made. According to my prediction, that means Missouri will miss for the first time in a LONG time.
Now the fun part begins. Unfortunately, I have to work during the time the election results will be coming out so I won’t be able to provide live updates. I will be keeping up with it, but I won’t be able to post anything until after midnight, when most races will have already been decided. I have high hopes that Obama is going to win this, but the moment of truth is at hand…
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