November 4, 2008
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Time for another map! Last one before the one that matters!
As expected, McCain has been gaining some ground.
ALASKA (3 votes) – There is a poll here from Sarah Palin’s home state showing McCain leading by only 3 points. This has to be a fluke, because every poll recently has shown McCain leading by double-digits. I am not changing it. McCain is going to take Alaska, no question.
ARIZONA (10 votes) – The last five polls from John McCain’s home state show him leading by 7 points or less. I am pretty sure he is still going to take it, but I am leaving it as Weak McCain. As I said before, this could be an indication of other problems. Al Gore lost his home state of Tennessee in 2000 and barely lost the election.
ARKANSAS (6 votes) – There is a poll out from Razorback Country showing McCain only leading 51-44. Again, I think this is probably a fluke, so I am leaving it as Strong McCain.
COLORADO (9 votes) – Obama has been consistently leading here, though his margin has slimmed a bit. I am moving it from Strong Obama to Weak Obama. I still think he will take it, but he might have some difficulty.
FLORIDA (27 votes) – There is a Rasmussen poll out showing McCain with a 1 point lead. This state is VERY close. Obama has been leading for awhile, but his lead has only been a few points. I am leaving this one as Weak Obama just because the polls are in his favor, but McCain could pull this one.
INDIANA (11 votes) – The latest poll shows Obama with a 1 point lead, but it has been flip-flopping back and forth. I think McCain will probably take it, but for the poll map I am moving it from Weak McCain to Tied.
IOWA (7 votes) – Obama has been getting some insane results here lately, in a state that went for Bush in 2004. The latest poll shows him with a 54-37 lead. It looks like Iowa is going blue this year.
MISSOURI (11 votes) – The latest poll from the Show-Me State shows the candidates dead even at 49-49. Two of the three polls before that showed a tie as well, and the other one only showed a one-point lead for Obama. I am moving this one from Weak McCain to Tied, just because it is so close.
NEW MEXICO (5 votes) – Obama still has a 10-point lead in this Bush state. It looks to be going blue.
NORTH CAROLINA (15 votes) – The last three polls show McCain with a 1-point lead, though it is VERY close. I am leaving it as Weak McCain.
NORTH DAKOTA (3 votes) – There haven’t been any polls here since mid-October, and the last two showed it very close (one as a tie, one as an Obama lead). I have to leave it as Weak McCain.
OHIO (20 votes) – Obama has been consistently leading here until recently. The latest poll shows a tie at 49-49, and the poll before that gives McCain a 2-point edge. I am moving it from Weak Obama to Tied.
PENNSYLVANIA (21 votes) – Obama has been leading here for quite awhile, though the last poll is dated October 30 before McCain’s last-minute campaigning. That poll showed Obama with a 7-point lead, and since McCain has been campaigning here I am pulling it back from Strong Obama to Weak Obama.
VIRGINIA (13 votes) – Obama has been leading here for quite awhile, including in the latest poll dated November 2. I am leaving it as Weak Obama.
That’s the way it stands going into the election, folks. The projected electoral vote stands at 318-178, with 42 votes currently tied. With the map the way it is, McCain could win all of those 42 votes and still not win. However, polls can be wrong…
I will have my prediction map out ASAP.
